基于层次分析法的档案应急预案研究

文章以应对突发事件的档案应急预案为研究对象，对国内外理论研究现状进行总结，指出未来档案应急预案的制定趋势；对我国档案网站中公布的应急预案进行调查，并实地调研京津冀、四川部分档案馆应急预案实施情况，同时与国外档案应急预案实践进行对比，就此分析我国档案应急预案现状，指出其存在的问题和有待提高之处。文章采用层次分析法从基于大数据分析的风险评估、依托虚拟技术的针对性编制、以自动化技术为基础的持续改进机制、以通讯技术为支撑的及时协作机制四个方面提出档案应急预案的优化方案。

This paper is a study of the contingency plans for emergencies in archives management. By analyzing the current situation at home and aboard of this study with the method of documentanalysis,this paper points out the development trend of contingency plans in archives management. The sample survey method is also used to help us understand the current situation of contingency plans for emergencies in China＇s archives management in this paper. After analyzing the contingency plans published in China＇ sarchives wchsites, as well as on-site studying the implementation of archives＇ contingency plans in Bei- jing.Tianjin.Hebei.Sichuan some problems and shortcomings can be concluded. Based on above analysis, anumber of schemes of contingency plan could be summed up. By building the model based on the analyt- ic hierarchy process（AHP）, this paper puts forward the optimization methods of the contingency plans, which are helpful to improve the archives＇ ability to deal with emergencies and to promote the development of emergency management.