武威市干旱灾害风险分析

Risk Analysis of Drought Disaster in Wuwei City

本文利用信息扩散的风险分析方法,选取1951—2010年武威市各县区气象站点气象观测资料,计算各县区干旱等级风险值。结果表明,凉州发生干旱的概率最大,民勤、古浪次之,天祝概率最小;凉州是全市的农产品主产地,全市抗旱工作的重点在凉州。

The observation data of meteorological stations in Wuwei City from 1951 to 2010 was selected,and the drought level risk value of each county was calculated by using the risk assessment method based on information diffuse theory. The results showed that the maximum probability of drought occurrence was in Liangzhou,followed by Minqin and Gulang,the minimum probability of drought occurrence was in Tianzhu.Liangzhou is the main area to control drought because it is the primary origin of agriculture products of Wuwei City.