2030年气候条件下苹果蠹蛾全球适生区预测

Potential Geographical Distribution of Cydia pomonella(L.) in 2030

苹果蠹蛾(Cydia pomonella(L.))是危害苹果、梨等果实的重要害虫。气候是影响该虫地理分布的重要因素。本文根据苹果蠹蛾的生物学特性,利用DYMEX2.0软件,结合全球未来气候变化趋势,预测苹果蠹蛾在2030年气候条件下全球适生区。结果表明,随着未来气候变化,苹果蠹蛾在世界潜在地理分布也将出现相应的变化:非洲南部分布逐步减弱、北美洲的北部以及南部将继续扩大;我国苹果蠹蛾在河北、山西、河南、陕西、云南、四川、西藏适生区范围有逐步扩大趋势。研究结果可对我国水果产区制定苹果蠹蛾的防控策略提供参考依据。

Cydia pomonella（L.） is a invasive species that causes serious damage to apples,pears,and other fruits. Climate is an important factor affecting its geographical distribution. In this study,on the basis of the biological characteristics of Cydia pomonella,we used the DYMEX2.0 to predict its potential distribution around the world in 2030. With global change in the future,the potential geographical distribution of codling moth will change accordingly. For instance,its distribution will be gradually shrunk in Southern Africa,and continuously expanded in the north and the south of North America. In China,the codling moth will be gradually expanded in Hebei,Shanxi,Henan,Shaanxi,Yunnan,Sichuan,and Xizang. The research results can provide the basis for prevention and control strategies of codling moth in fruit producing areas of China.