中国FDI流入与出口关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between China's FDI Inflow and Export

为研究中国外商直接投资流入与出口之间的相互关系,选取1994年1月到2014年11月的中国FDI和出口月度数据,利用拔靴滚动窗口的因果关系检验方法实证分析了中国外商直接投资流入(FDI)和出口之间的因果关系。为进行对比分析,在单位根检验等基础上,对FDI和出口进行了全样本因果关系检验,结果表明,FDI对出口影响更大,即出口能有效解释FDI的变动,FDI则不能有效解释出口的变动。而参数稳定性检验证明,全样本因果关系检验中构建的VAR模型存在短期的结构性变动,且时间序列在长期并不存在稳定的协整关系。有鉴于此,通过采用窗口大小为24个月的滚动检验方法,检验证明FDI和出口之间的关系随时间变动而变动,更重要的是,实证结果表明,中国只有在经历经济波动强烈的时期,FDI才能有效促进出口增长,而在其他时期,二者关系并不显著。将所得结论和KK理论的FDI结合分析,结果表明中国的FDI更倾向于纵向直接投资,在经济转型的重要关口,这一新的研究结论对于相关政策制定者有着深刻的启示。

In order to study the causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment（FDI） and export,we try to use bootstrap rolling window causality test based on China’s monthly data of FDI and export from January 1994 to November 2014. In order to make a comparative analysis,the full samples causality relationship is obtained by applying unit root test. The results show that FDI has had a bigger influence on export,which means that exports could explain the changes in FDI effectively,while FDI cannot effectively explain the changes in exports. However,the parameter stability test proves that there are short-term structural changes in VAR model,and time series data does not show a stable co-integration in the long-term. In view of this result,rolling test method is used in this paper witha 24-months window size.The results not only demonstrate that the relation between FDI and export changes over time,but also show that FDI promotes the growth of export effectively only when China is experiencing economic turmoil,although not obvious during other periods. Based on Knowledge Capital Theory,this paper concludes that a majority of FDI in China are vertical direct investment,which provides enlightenment for policy makers in the period of economic transition.