基于证据链的石化装置工艺腐蚀RCFA分析

Evidence-Chain-Based RCFA for the Process Corrosionin Petrochemical Units

提出了一种基于证据链理论的失效根原因分析(RCFA)方法,用于准确有效地识别石化装置工艺腐蚀异常主要诱因。RCFA是高效控制石化设备风险的重要环节,但是目前的失效分析和专家诊断都存在一定的不适应性,尤其对于工艺腐蚀问题,提出的方法正是为了解决这种不适应性,该方法首先将综合调查发现的各种现象和证据构建情景推理链,并用现场已发现的证据筛选出可靠性最高的一个情景推理链作为工艺腐蚀异常的发生逻辑,那么该情景推理链的初始事件就是诱发该工艺腐蚀异常的根原因,从而据此指导工艺腐蚀控制方案的制定。

A new method is proposed based on the evidence chains theory for exactly and effectively identifying the essential root causes of the process corrosive abnormity in petrochemical units. Root causes failure analysis（RCFA） is a important chain to control the risk on the petrochemical equipment, but now the failure analysis and expert diagnosis are not suitable for the demands, especially the process corrosion, which the proposed new method is just trying to solute. Firstly the scenarios reasoning chains can be established considering all the investigated evidences, and then other discovered evidences are used to screen the most reliable one as the truly scenarios of the process corrosive abnormity from all the scenarios reasoning chains, finally the original events are just the root causes of the the process corrosive abnormity, which can be applied to decide the optimum solution plans for the corrosive abnormity.