沙特经济转型:愿景与挑战

Economic Restructuring of Saudi Arabia: Vision and Challenges

沙特石油经济同时面临两大挑战:能源技术革命引发的结构性危机,以及国际油价下降带来的周期性危机。新形势下,沙特原有的"福利换稳定"模式难以维系,提出"2030愿景"及一系列后续改革措施,旨在实现产业多元化和经济转型升级。但由于经济改革动摇传统统治模式,经济计划的可行性仍待验证;社会改革触动"宗教立国"根基,改革真正落实仍将面临不少困难与挑战。

The oil economy of Saudi Arabia is currently confronted with two major challenges at the same time: a structural crisis induced by the energy technological revolution and a cyclical crisis due to the falling international oil prices. With the "welfare for stability" model untenable under the new circumstances, Saudi Arabia proposed a "Vision 2030" plan and a series of reform measures, in an aim to bring about greater diversity in its industries as well as restructuring and upgrading in its economy. However, since the economic reform tends to destabilize the traditional mode of governing, the feasibility of this economic plan is yet to be determined; since the social reform tends to shake the foundation of the "religious state", the actual implementation of the reform will face difficulties and challenges ahead.