暖冬气候变化对青海云杉安全越冬和生长的影响

Effects of Climate Change in Warm Winter on Overwintering Safely and Growth of Picea crassifolia

研究了青海云杉育苗地近年(2011~2015年)冬季气候变化(气温、降雪、湿度)对苗木安全越冬和越冬后生长的影响。结果表明:同一苗龄青海云杉越冬后死亡率在不同年份随着冬季平均气温的升高而提高,随着降雪天数的减少和空气湿度的降低而提高,越冬后顶梢干枯长度也与冬季平均气温、降雪天数和空气湿度之间存在相关性。1~6年生青海云杉苗木2011~2015年越冬后死亡率分别由15.37%、12.15%、9.47%、7.32%、6.07%和5.42%提高到21.10%、19.04%、16.21%、12.17%、11.28%和10.18%,死亡率与平均气温正相关,相关系数在0.94~0.99之间变动,死亡率与降雪天数和空气湿度负相关,相关系数分别在-0.95^-0.97和-0.97^-0.99之间变动。除此之外,冬季气候变化还影响青海云杉顶梢干枯长度、越冬后发芽能力和生长势。并就暖冬气候变化对青海云杉越冬带来的不利影响提出了一些防范建议。

Effects of climate change（ air temperature,snowfall days,air humidity） in winter（ 2011 ～2015） on overwintering safely and growth of Picea crassifolia kom were studied. The result showed that the mortality rate of same age in different years was increased with air temperature increased,and increased with snowfall days and air humidity decreased,there was a relativity between mortality rate and snowfall days and air humidity. Mortality rate of 1 ～ 6 years seedling in 2011 ～ 2015 were increased from 15. 37%,12. 15%,9. 47%,7. 32%,6. 07%,5. 42% to 21. 10%,19. 04%,16. 21%,12. 17%,11. 28%,10. 18% separately,the mortality rate was positively related to air temperature,the coefficient of correlation was changed between0. 94 ～ 0. 99,the mortality rate was negatively related to snowfall days and air humidity,the coefficient of correlation was changed between-0. 95 ～-0. 97 and-0. 97 ～-0. 99 separately. In addition,top dry length,germination capacity and growth potential after overwinter was affected by climate change. Some precautions were suggested to negative effects from climate change in warm winter.