基于GIS的紫茎泽兰空间扩散的风险分析

Risk Analysis of Spread of Eupatorium adenophorum Based on GIS

[目的]分析紫茎泽兰空间扩散的风险。[方法]分析了影响紫茎泽兰传播及定植的生态条件,选择海拔、降雨、人为影响、10.8℃积温、林龄、郁闭度等为影响因子,构建了紫茎泽兰扩散传播、定植危害的空间评估模型。以昆明市为例,通过各生态因子的空间信息化处理、分析紫茎泽兰样点与各生态因子空间相关性,定量评估了其空间定植扩散的风险,并按定植扩散的潜在危害,将风险划分为:高风险区、中度风险区、轻度风险区及轻度以下风险区,制作了紫茎泽兰定植扩散风险等级地图。[结果]紫茎泽兰的湿度与降雨、平均温与积温具有共性因子,所以剔除湿度和平均温。风险适生区域在空间上具有极大的分异性,其中高风险区面积占比为24.26%,主要位于宜良、寻甸,中度风险区面积占比为28.39%,低风险区面积占比为47.35%。[结论]研究结果表明人为活动、交通网络是影响紫茎泽兰扩散传播的主导因素,气象因子是影响紫茎泽兰定植的关键。借助GIS及空间建模和模拟方法,能以精细化栅格单元进行空间连续化风险分析和预测,实现了有害生物发生发展的精细化预警,对综合防治管理及实践具有重要参考及指导意义。

[Objective]To study the risk of spread of Eupatorium adenophorum.[Method]The ecological conditions affecting the propagation and establishment of E. adenophorum were analyzed. Factors such as altitude,rainfall,human influence,10. 8 ℃ accumulated temperature,forest age and canopy density were selected as the influencing factors,and the spatial evaluation model for dispersal and establishment of E. adenophorum was established. Taking Kunming City as an example,through the analysis of E. adenophorum samples and the ecological factors of the spatial correlation of spatial information processing,the ecological factors,quantitative assessment of the risk of space spread,and by diffusion and the possibility of potential harm,will spread the risk into the high risk area,middle risk area and low risk region. To make of E. adenophorum spread risk map.[Result]The humidity and rainfall,the average temperature and accumulated temperature of E. adenophorum had a common factor,so eliminating peace temperature humidity. Risk adaptation regions had great spatial diversity. The area of high risk area was 24. 26%,which was mainly located in Yiliang and Xundian. The proportion of moderate risk area was 28. 39%,and the area of low risk area was 47. 35%.[Conclusion]The results showed that human activities and traffic network were the main factors that influenced the spread and propagation of E. adenophorum,and meteorological factors were the key factors affecting the colonization of E. adenophorum. With the help of GIS and spatial modeling and simulation method,spatial risk analysis and prediction can be carried out with meticulous grid cells,and meticulous early warning for occurrence and development of pests is realized. It has important reference and guidance significance for comprehensive prevention and control management and practice.