基于气象因子的西青开发区燃气负荷模型研究

Gas Load Forecasting Model in Xiqing Development Area Based on Meteorological Factors

主要研究了燃气负荷与气象因子的关系。利用西青开发区2011—2015年逐日燃气负荷量和气象要素值,分析了燃气负荷的相关规律、气象要素对于燃气负荷影响以及各气象要素与燃气负荷的相关性,在此基础上,建立气象要素与燃气负荷的预测模型。结果表明,在研究时段内,西青开发区燃气负荷呈逐年小幅下降趋势且具有显著的季节性变化,春、夏季燃气负荷较低,波动较小,而秋、冬季节燃气负荷明显增加,且春节期间燃气负荷出现明显的谷值,一年的燃气负荷峰值出现在12月或者1月。在各气象要素中,气温与平均气压是燃气负荷的最大影响因子,其中气温与燃气负荷呈现显著负相关,平均气压与燃气负荷呈现正相关。根据上述相关性建立燃气负荷预测模型,结果表明,利用动态线性模型预测燃气负荷可以更加准确地把握实际燃气负荷的变化情况。

The relationship between gas load forecasting technology and meteorological factor was studied in this paper.Based on the daily gas load forecasting technology and meteorological element in Xiqing development area from 2011 to2015,this paper analyzes the influence on gas load by relevant laws and meteorological factor,and the correlation between the meteorological element and the gas load.On that basis,the predictive model of meteorological factor and gas load was established.The result shows that during the study period,the gas load of Xiqing development area shows a slight downward trend with significant seasonal variation.The gas load is lower and has less fluctuation in spring and summer but increases significantly in autumn and winter.It shows an obvious valley value during the Spring Festival.In December or January,it showed a peak value.Among meteorological elements,temperature and average air pressure are the most important effects of the gas load.The temperature has an obviously negative correlation with gas load.The average air pressure has positive correlation with the gas load.Gas load model was established based on the relationship.In general,the result shows that the predictive model has high accuracy,but the predicted value of the model is relatively small when the gas load has been greatly changed.