异质性国际资本流动对经济增长的影响——基于面板平滑转换模型

On the Effects of Disaggregated International Capital Flows on Economic Growth——Based on the Panel Smoothing Regression Model

通过建立面板平滑转换模型(PSTR),以资本账户开放度作为门限变量,以贸易开放度、总国内储蓄率和金融发展程度作为控制变量,研究新兴经济体异质性国际资本流动对经济增长的影响。结果发现:两者之间存在非线性关系,且当资本账户开放度从低体制状态向高体制状态转变时,直接投资的促进作用越来越显著,证券投资的促进作用逐渐减小,其他投资的促进作用由显著到不显著。为此,应平稳有序地推进我国资本账户开放,合理确定吸引国际资本流入的结构,保持较高的贸易开放度和储蓄率,以及合适的金融发展程度。

Based on the panel smoothing regression model（PSTR）,this paper uses capital account opening as a threshold variable,and trade openness,gross domestic savings and financial development ass control variables,to study the impact of different international capital flows on economic growth in emerging economies.The results show that there is a non-linear relationship between them,and the role of direct investment in economic growth is becoming more and more important,portfolio investment gradually decreased,other investment from significant to not significant,when the capital account opening degree changes from low institutional state to high state.We suggest the regulators to put forward capital account opening smoothly and orderly,optimize the structure of international capital inflows,maintain high trade openness and savings,and proper financial development degree.