2006-2015年间中国民航事故及事故征候的统计分析

Statistic analysis based on accidents and incidents of China civil aviation during 2006-2015

为了呈现近十年中国民航事故与事故征候的规律,探讨其成因,以期达到提高民航运行安全的目的,本文对2006-2015年间中国民航发生的56起事故以及2 196起事故征候进行分类统计,并运用对比分析法进行了分析。结果发现:近十年中我国民航运输航空百万架次事故率变化波动较大,呈现先扬后抑的趋势;通用航空事故率有波动上升的趋势;事故征候的万架次率呈上升态势。中国民航事故征候的主要原因是意外天气、地面保障、机械、机组和机务。事故征候的主要类型是鸟击、外来物击伤、发动机停车、雷击。建议:通过提高通用航空的保障和管理水平;实施充分的培训减少机组的差错;借鉴世界先进机场的管理经验提高地面保障能力,达到提高民航安全水平的目的。

To reveal the regularities in the accidents and incidents in China civil aviation,to enhance the causes and to improve the safety of civil aviation operation,56 accidents and 2196 incidents of Civil Aviation of China were analyzed by the statistic method during 2006-2015. The results show that the accident rate per 1000 thousand aircraft of the air transport fluctuated,with the trend decreasing after increasing, the accident rate per 1000 thousand aircraft of general aviation fluctuating increase, the incident rate per 10 thousand had an inclination of increase. The main causes of these accidents and incidents in Civil Aviation of China are weather,ground support,machinery,crew,maintenance. Most incidents were caused by bird strike,hit and injured by outside objects,shutdown in the air,lightning strike. To improve the safety of civil aviation,we recommend enhancing the level of security and management of general aviation,reducing the crew error by conducting adequate training,improving ground support by learning advanced management around the world.