管理者过度自信与企业创新战略选择

Managerial overconfidence and enterprise innovation strategy choice

通过构建管理者生涯模型,分析了管理者过度自信(overconfidence)对于企业创新战略选择的影响.通过分析模型发现:管理者越是过度自信,企业越可能摒弃保守的利用式创新战略(exploitative strategy),转而选择进取的探索式创新战略(exploratory strategy).此外,模型推导还发现,管理者过度自信对于企业创新战略的影响程度受到管理者能力水平以及创新战略的商业收益的影响.具体来说,管理者的能力水平越高,企业越可能选择探索式创新战略;探索式创新战略的商业收益越大,管理者越倾向于探索式创新战略,而利用式创新战略的商业收益的增加则会激励管理者选择利用式创新战略.利用算例进一步说明了上述结论,并分析了相关的管理学启示.

This paper extends the managerial career concern model to analyze the impact of managerial overconfidence on the choice of two kinds of innovation strategies： exploitative strategy and exploratory strategy. The analysis shows that, as the managerial overconfidence increases, the company is more inclined to choose the exploratory innovation strategies. Besides, the increase of manager＇s expected capacity encourages the company to choose explorative innovation strategies; an increase in the return of the exploratory （or a decrease in the return of the exploitative） strategy motivates the company to implement exploratory strategy. Numerical examples are used to explore the managerial implication of these results.