“伊斯兰国”遭重创后前景评估

The Prospect Assessment after the “IS” Is Badly Beaten

近两年来,在美俄各自主导的反恐力量、叙利亚和伊拉克政府军、库尔德人武装等多方力量的打击下,恐怖组织"伊斯兰国"的军事实力、领土面积和财政收入损失惨重。2017年7月,"伊斯兰国"占领的伊拉克摩苏尔地区丢失,这标志着该组织在遭受沉重打击后进入衰败阶段。但目前该组织并未消亡,而是在组织结构、战术策略和恐怖手段等方面发生了变化。转变后的"伊斯兰国"将继续利用网络技术和社交工具传播极端思想、制造恐怖活动、获得资金支持。此外,"伊斯兰国"武装人员的扩散、跨国"圣战者"的回流及其庞大的分支网络和众多的效忠团体将继续对中东和世界的安全形势构成威胁。为此,国际社会应加强协作,将"伊斯兰国"残存势力清除出叙伊境内,建立以大国协调为基础的国际反"伊斯兰国"合作机制,消除其重新崛起的威胁。

. In the past two years, under the severe strikes launched by the counter-terror forces led respectively by the US and Russia, the government forces of Syria and Iraq, and the Kurdish armed forces, the terrorist organization "IS" in the Middle East has suffered great losses in military strength, territories and revenues. In July of 2017, the "IS" lost Mosul in Iraq it had occupied, which marked the decline of the "IS" under heavy attacks. This terrorist organization is not yet demised, but now undergoing changes in organizational structure, tactics and terrorist means. The transformed "IS" will continue to diffuse extremist ideas, stage terrorist attacks and gain financial support by using network technology and social media. In addition, the spread of the "IS" combatants, the return of the transnational "jihadists", the widespread branches of the "IS" and a host of loyal groups will continue to pose threats to the security situation in the Middle East and the world. For this, the international community should strengthen collaboration in driving the remnants of the "IS" out of Syria and Iraq, assisting their post-war reconstruction, eliminating the soil on which the "IS" lives, and establishing the anti-"IS" international cooperation mechanism based on coordination among major powers, so as to crumble its global networks and do away with the threats of its re-rising.