“后伊斯兰国时代”中亚恐怖主义发展态势及其治理

The Development Trend of Terrorism in Central Asia and Its Management in the “Post-IS” Era

在国际反恐联盟的打击下,极端组织"伊斯兰国"逐步土崩瓦解,国际反恐战争进入"后伊斯兰国时代"。受中东恐怖组织成员"回流"和阿富汗局势变化影响,根植于中亚政治经济环境的恐怖主义活动出现了一些新的变化:活动范围和袭击目标国际化;恐怖主义思潮内生化、年轻化趋势明显;袭击方式更具极端化暴力特性。中亚地区恐怖主义活动的新变化对地区和周边的安全稳定产生了消极影响,中亚各国普遍加大了针对恐怖主义犯罪的打击力度,努力建立健全社会化的预防恐怖犯罪机制,并积极与国际社会一道争取地区安全局势可控。

The IS is collapsing under the strike of the international antiterror coalition, with the international war on terror entering the "postIS" era. Affected by the returning of members of the terrorist groups in the Middle East and the situation change in Afghanistan, the terrorist activities rooted in the political and economic conditions in Central Asia have manifested some new changes: the scope and targets of terrorist attacks have become internationalized; the terrorist ideology has taken a clear trend of indigenization and rejuvenation; and the means of terrorist attacks are featuring more extremism and violence. These new changes of terrorist activities in Central Asia have exerted negative impacts on the security and stability of the region and neighboring regions, while the Central Asian states generally increasing the momentum of fighting against terrorist crimes, making efforts to establish sound and socialized mechanism to prevent terrorist crimes, and actively cooperating with the international community to seek control of the regional security situation.