人口老龄化对重庆市恶性淋巴瘤发病趋势的影响

Impact of population aging on the incidence trend of malignant lymphoma in Chongqing Municipality

目的分析重庆市恶性淋巴瘤发病趋势变化及人口老龄化对发病趋势的影响,为开展恶性淋巴瘤防控工作提供建议。方法收集整理2006-2014年重庆市肿瘤登记点报告恶性淋巴瘤新发病例,统计分析发病率、中标率、世标率、年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC),采用曲线估计指数分布回归模型进行趋势变化分析。采用差别分解法分析人口老龄化和其它影响因素对恶性淋巴瘤发病趋势变化的贡献率。结果重庆市恶性淋巴瘤发病率由2006年的2.31/10万上升至2014年的6.82/10万,APC为9.09%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),中标率、世标率APC分别为5.34%与4.92%,变化趋势差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。恶性淋巴瘤发病率的上升受人口因素与其它影响因素的协同作用,其它影响因素的贡献率(72.45%)高于人口老龄化的贡献率(27.55%)。结论 2006-2014年重庆市恶性淋巴瘤发病率呈上升的趋势,发病率上升受人口老龄化与其它影响因素的协同影响,应重视恶性淋巴瘤的一级预防工作。

Objective To analyze the changes in the incidence trend of malignant lymphoma and the impact of population aging on the incidence trend in Chonqing Municipality so as to put forward suggestions for malignant lymphoma prevention and control.Methods We collected new cases of malignant lymphoma reported by the cancer registration sites in Chongqing Municipality from 2006 to 2014. The indicators of malignant lymphoma such as incidence rate,age-standardized incidence rates by China and World population and annual percent change（ APC） were calculated. The difference of incidence trend of malignant lymphoma was identified by curve estimated exponential distribution regression model. Difference decomposition method was used to estimate the contribution rates of population aging and other risk factors influencing the changes in incidence trend of malignant lymphoma. Results The incidence rate of malignant lymphoma in Chonqing Municipality increased from 2.31/100,000 in 2006 to 6.82/100,000 in2014,and its APC was 9.09%,showing statistically significant differences in the incidence trend（ P〈0.05）. The APCs of agestandardized incidence rates by China and World population were 5.34% and 4.92% respectively,showing no statistically signficant difference（ both P〈0.05）. The rising of incidence rate of malignant lymphoma was affected by the coordination of population aging and other risk factors. The contribution rate of other risk factors was higher than that of population aging（ 72.45% vs. 27.55%）.Conclusions The incidence rates of malignant lymphoma in Chongqing Municipality during 2006-2014 showed an increasing tendency. The rising of incidence rate of malignant lymphoma was influenced by the coordination of population aging and other risk factors. Special attention should be paid to primary prevention of malignant lymphoma.