关于铁路网运输能力供需适应性预测仿真

Forecast Simulation on Supply and Demand Adaptability of Railway Network Transportation Capacity

铁路网能力供需适应性的合理判定是路网扩能改造的前提与依据。传统方法利用单纯的线路通过能力与货运需求量来衡量铁路网能力供需适应性,具有结果不能反映整个路网状况以及数据获取困难的问题。提出基于路网流量分配模拟的铁路网能力供需适应性仿真预测思路。先以路网中产生的广义运输费用最小作为优化目标,构建能力约束下基于多商品流的铁路网车流分配模型。针对目前流量分配问题求解中存在的运行时间长及难以获得可行解等缺陷,设计了结合模拟退火选择机制的混合遗传算法进行求解。在此基础上以运输需求满足率和路网平均能力利用率两项指标对运能供需适应性进行预测仿真。仿真结果表明,所提方法可以为铁路网能力供需适应性判定提供科学依据。

The reasonable judgment of the adaptability of railway network capacity supply and demand is the premise and basis of reconstruction of road network. This paper puts forward an adaptive simulation prediction of railway network capacity based on network traffic distribution simulation. The optimization goals are to minimize the generalized transport costs generated in the road network and build railway network traffic distribution model under the condition of capacity constraints and based on multi-commodity flow. Take account of the imperfections that long run- ning time is needed and obtaining feasible solution on flow assignment solution is difficult, a hybrid genetic algorithm based on simulated annealing selection mechanism was designed. On this basis, the demand satisfaction rate and the average capacity utilization ratio of the road network were used to predict the supply and demand adaptability of the transport capacity. Simulation results show that this method can provide scientific basis for the supply and demand adaptability of railway network capacity.