“一般商品-保值手段”双重属性视角下的国际黄金价格影响因素研究

An Analysis on the Influencing Factors of International Gold Price:Perspective of the Dual Nature of Gold as a Commodity and as a Value Guarantee

黄金在国际货币体系演变中扮演着不可替代的独特作用。黄金天然具有作为一般商品和作为货币的双重使用价值属性。本文首先从理论层面研究黄金这一特殊属性,并利用黄金实物供需平衡表、SVAR模型对黄金供需、当期与累计产出和美元指数对国际金价的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:第一,黄金当期和累计产出水平对金价具有正向影响,这可能是由于短期内黄金投资避险需求对价格波动的影响更为突出,引发了金价与产出水平间长期关系的偏离。不过,黄金存量储备变动和矿产金产量调整会促使金价回归长期均衡关系。第二,国际金价和美元指数间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;短期内,黄金价格受到美元价格指数的负向冲击。可见,在当前虚金本位制度下,黄金依然充当了美元价值对冲物的角色。因而,在短期内,黄金价格变动更多是受保值避险需求驱动;而在长期,国际黄金价格仍由供需决定。这是黄金和一般商品在价格波动上的重要区别。未来,黄金价格会在短期内维持震荡,在长期预期黄金价格上涨。

Gold plays an irreplaceable and unique role in the evolution of international nlonetary system. Gold naturally has a dual use value attribute both as a general commodity and as a currency. This article initially examines the dual nature of gold, and consequently investigates the influence of the gold supply and demand, the current and cumulative gold output and the dollar index on the fluctuations of the international gold price based on the gold supply and demand balance table and SVAR model respectively. Our results show that, the current and the cumulative gold output have a positive effect on the gold price. This indicates that the impact of the short-term hedging demand for gold investment is more prominent, triggering the deviation of tile long-term relationship between the gold production and the gold price, hut this can he recovered through changes in goht reserves and further adjustments in the mineral gold production.Besides, our findings suggest that there exists a co-integration relationship between the dollar index and the gold; in the short term, the gold price is negatively impacted by the dollar price index. Therefore, in the current virtual gold standard system, gold still acts as a dollar hedge. In conclusion, changes of the international gold price are primarily driven by the hedging demand in the short run and are still determined by supply and demand in the long run. This is an important difference of the price fluctuations between the gold and the general merchandise. In the future, the international gold price is likely to remain volatile in the short term, and probably to rise in the long term.