天气突变对心脑血管疾病的影响

Impact of Sudden Weather Changes on CCVd from November to Next February in Dandong

为做好公共气象疾病指数预报服务,以丹东市近2004—2015年共8677例心脑血管疾病住院患者为样本,分析了心脑血管疾病住院人数与气象因素关系,重点分析了11月至次年2月天气突变对心脑血管疾病发病的影响,结果表明:(1)心脑血管疾病的患病住院人数与气压、风速均呈极显著正相关关系,分别为0.949和0.933;与月平均气温呈极显著负相关关系(-0.992),均通过了0.01的显著性水平检验,且冬季心脑血管病住院人数大于夏季;(2)冷锋、气旋、寒潮和大风等突变气象条件与心脑血管疾病住院人数呈正相关。该分析结果可作为日常公共气象疾病指数预报的科学依据,当预报出现心脑血管疾病高发天气条件时,及时通过手机短信、微博、微信等新媒体提供给广大公众,有利于预防和减轻心脑血管病的发生,取得良好的社会效益。

In order to improve the forecast service of public weather index,taking 8677 cases of cardiocerebrovascular disease（CCVd）inpatients in Dandong for recent 17 years as samples,based on the analysis of the relationship between the number of CCVd inpatients and meteorological factors,the impact of sudden weather changes on the morbidity of CCVd inpatients from November to February is studied.The results show：（1）The number of cardiovascular diseases inpatients is positively correlated with the air pressure and wind speed,with the correlation coefficients being 0.949 and 0.933,respectively,and negatively correlated with monthly average temperature with the correlation coefficient being-0.992,both passed the test of 0.01 significance level;the number of CCVd inpatients in winter is larger than that in summer.（2）The number of CCVd inpatients is positively correlated with meteorological conditions such as cold fronts,cyclones,cold-air outbreaks and gales.The results of this study can be used as the scientific basis for public weather index forecast.When the weather conditions that are favorable to the high incidence of CCVds are predicted,the warning massages will be provided to the public in time through new media such as SMS,micro-blog,and WeChat,which will be beneficial to prevent and reduce the occurrence of CCVds and achieve good social benefits.