国际海运温室气体减排机制的福利效应

The Welfare Effects of Mechanism on Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction of International Shipping

本文通过构建两国经由海运企业相互出口的理论模型,分析国际海运温室气体减排机制的福利效应,并考察了减排机制对发达国家和发展中国家可能的不同影响。研究发现,减排机制实施后:(1)发展中国家海运企业利润必然降低,发达国家海运企业利润不一定降低。若发达国家海运企业具备明显的成本优势,其利润反而会提高。多数情况下,发展中国家海运企业比发达国家海运企业受到更大的利润冲击。(2)两国的消费者剩余均降低。若产品的运输成本相对于市场容量较大,则两国生产企业利润均提高;若产品的运输成本相对于市场容量较小,则两国生产企业的利润均降低。(3)若发达国家海运企业具备足够大的成本优势,则其经济福利必然提高;若发展中国家海运企业具备较严重的成本劣势,则其经济福利必然下降。若两国海运企业成本差异较小,且产品的运输成本相对市场容量较大,则两国的经济福利可能均会提高。(4)碳排放总量必然降低,环境状况得到改善。根据上述结论,本文就海运企业、国内产业、谈判策略等方面提供了政策建议。

The paper constructs a theoretical model of two countries which trade with each other by shipping firms to analyze the welfare effects of mechanism on greenhouse gas emission reduction of international shipping,and the different effects of emission reduction mechanisms on the developed and developing countries. The research finds out the implementation of the emission reduction mechanism：（ 1） the profit of the shipping firm of developing country must be reduced,but the profit of the shipping firm of developed country may not be reduced. If the shipping firm of developed country has obvious cost advantage,the profit will be improved. In most of the cases,the shipping firm of developed country suffers worse impact on profit.（ 2） The consumers＇ surplus of both countries will be reduced. If the transportation cost of the products is large relative to the market capacity,the profit of production firms of both countries will be increased; if the transportation cost of the products is small relative to the market capacity,the profit of production firms of both countries will be decreased.（ 3） If the shipping firm of developed country has a cost advantage which is large enough,its economic welfare will be improved; if the shipping firm of developing country has serious cost disadvantage,its economic welfare will be declined. If the cost difference between the two countries is small,and the transportation cost of the products is large relative to the market capacity,the economic welfare of both countries may be improved.（ 4） The total amount of carbon emissions will be reduced,and the environment has been improved. According to the above conclusions,the paper provides policy recommendations on the shipping firm,domestic industries,negotiation strategies and so on.