“20160227”青岛水上交通事故的气象条件分析和预报反思

Meteorological conditions in“20160227”marine accident and its forecast reflection in Qingdao

结合各种观测资料和数值模式产品,对"20160227"青岛水上交通事故的气象条件和预报进行了分析和反思,发现:(1)事故海域附近的大雾区首先在青岛近海海域的南侧发展,之后逐渐向北向东扩展,但最远也仅限于离海岸线约50~60 km处,局地性较强;(2)大雾发展过程中,平流和辐射效应均有体现。业务数值模式对此次大雾均无有效预报,显示对近海大雾而言,现阶段预报技术水平仍不高;(3)从我国海洋气象预报业务分工看,现阶段各省级或地市级的海洋气象业务均存在人员素质不高、人员配备不足、预报产品针对性不足、临时或应急预报产品的传输效率不高等问题,严重制约相关责任海区的海洋气象业务水平。未来需要发展业务可用的集合预报系统,才可能对海雾预报有更好的客观支撑。而现有的业务技术体系中,省市级台站应注重天气形势和最新实况的配合分析,着力提升海雾短临预警水平。

Combined with observation data and numerical model products, meteorological conditions in＂20160227＂marine accident of Qingdao and its forecast are analyzed and reflected. The results show that（1）Foggy area near the accident point originates from south part of Qingdao coastal water. It spreads towards north and east then, and only extends to 50-60 km from the coastal line characterized as local offshore fog.（2）Both advection and radiation factors favor to the development of this fog event. The fact that all operational numerical model products haven＇t provided useful guidance during the event reflects our poor forecast skill for offshore fog.（3）All official meteorological units fail to forecast this offshore fog in advance. There exists a big disparity between our current ability in marine meteorological service and needs from relevant sectors. In respect of CMA＇s marine meteorological operations,inexperienced staff, manpower shortage, products without pertinence and lag-behind dissemination in provincial or prefectural meteorological offices have seriously restrained the advances of related services. An operational marine fog ensemble forecast system would be a crucial support for the future operations. Currently, combination synoptic situation with latest observation could facilitate a better forecast or warning.