中美贸易摩擦对我国制造业就业的潜在影响分析

An Analysis of the Potential Impacts of the Sino-US Trade Friction on the Employment of China's Manufacturing Industry

中美之间的贸易摩擦系当前世界经济面临的最大不确定性。本文分析了全球化对中美制造业就业的影响。以新的方法核算了中国制造业就业数据,阐释中美贸易争端的产生原因,以及贸易摩擦对中国制造业就业的影响,并提出政策建议。研究发现,如果目前美国的贸易威胁生效,中国出口的减少将导致中国制造业岗位减少20万以上。相对于每年中国新增1000万以上的就业岗位,这种影响是可控的。

The Sino-US trade friction is the top uncertainty faced by the current world economy. This paper, by calculating the employment data of China’s manufacturing industry, analyzes the impacts of globalization on the employment of the Sino-US manufacturing industry, and the causes of the Sino-US trade friction and its impacts on the manufacturing employment in China. In addition, positive suggestions are also proposed. The result of this study indicates that if the current US trade threat took effect, over 200, 000 jobs in China’s manufacturing industry would be reduced. Compared with the annual increase of 10 million jobs in China, this effect is controllable.