中国省域工业烟粉尘排放时空分布特征及区域减排控制

Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of provincial industrial soot & dust emission and regional reduction control in China

利用空间统计分析方法对1998—2013年中国31个省区工业烟粉尘排放总量与人均排放量的时空演化特征进行分析。结果表明:(1)工业烟粉尘排放逐年下降并存在"下降—平稳—下降—平稳"4个明显的阶段;高排放区和高人均排放量区逐渐减少;LISA集聚地图显示,西南地区烟粉尘排放控制情况良好,新疆是未来排放控制的重点。(2)工业烟粉尘人均排放量的重心总体向西北方向转移,其变化在时间上与区域间产业转移和经济发展状况密切相关。(3)建议在规划下一步的工业烟粉尘的减排路径和减排任务时,将内蒙古、黑龙江纳入减排的重点区域,同时考虑将青海、云南作为潜在的重点区域纳入规划当中。

The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the total and per capita emissions of industrial soot dust from 1998 to 2013 in 31 provinces of China were analyzed by using the spatial statistical analysis method.The results showed that：（1）the emission of industrial soot dust decreased year by year and there were four distinct stages of＂descending-steady-descending-steady＂,and the high emission area and high per-capita emission area gradually decreased.In southwest China,the emission control of soot dust is effective.Xinjiang was the key region of further emission control.（2）The gravity center of per-capita emission of industrial soot dust was generally shifted to the northwest.The changes were closely related to the regional industrial transfer and economic development.（3）It suggested that Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang should be included in the key areas for the emission reduction when planning the next emission reduction path and task of industrial soot dust.At the same time,Qinghai and Yunnan should be considered into the control planning as potential key areas.