“消失的货币”去哪了?——基于房地产视角的研究

Where does the “vanishing money”go?Research on the perspective of real estate

我国住房市场化改革以来,房地产"资金池"逐步建立,随着经济增长和房地产业发展,房地产"资金池"在货币流通总量中的占比越来越大。与此同时,物价水平一直处于低水平温和波动。为深入揭示房价、货币供给与物价之间的内在关系,采用1996年1月至2016年9月的月度数据,运用模型实证研究三者间的动态关系。研究结果表明:房价高并持续上涨使得大量货币流入房地产"资金池",这一"虹吸效应"削弱了货币流动性,物价上涨的货币基础也进一步受到限制,导致房价与经济基本面相脱离。基于此,提出应正确把握货币政策宏观调控、认清房地产"资金池"的波动机理、建立物价和房价波动的预警机制等政策建议。

Since the beginning of the development of China＇s housing market,the real estate ＂capital pool＂gradually established,with the economic development,real estate ＂capital pool＂in the total circulation of money accounted for more and more. At the same time,the price level has been at a low level of moderate fluctuations. In order to reveal the intrinsic interaction between house price,money supply and price,this paper uses TVP-SV-VAR model to study the dynamic relationship among the three models from January 1996 to September 2016. The study finds that the interaction between house prices,money supply and prices is not unique; they change over time and have different effects in different periods. Based on the influence of the interaction between the three variable on China＇s economy,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as grasping the macro-control of monetary policy correctly,recognizing the fluctuation mechanism of real estate＂capital pool＂and establishing early warning mechanism of price fluctuation.