旅行社业对宏观经济带动效应的时间变化与地域特征——基于2002—2012年非竞争型投入占用产出模型的考察

The Temporal and Regional Characteristics of the Driving Effects of Travel Agency Services Industry on Chinese Economy: Based on the Study of the Non-competitive Input-output Model from 2002 to 2012

本文利用非竞争型投入占用产出法度量了2002—2012年中国及不同类型省份中旅行社业(狭义旅游业)的国内完全增加值系数和完全就业系数,旨在分析旅行社业对经济带动效应的时间变化和地域特征。结果表明,考察期间内旅行社业在国民经济中的地位保持稳定,但最终需求对国内增加值的诱发程度有所降低,行业自身投入产出率的下降和国际旅游比例的提高成为主要原因;旅行社业最终需求对基本旅游消费的诱发作用下降,对非基本旅游消费的诱发作用上升,旅游消费结构正在优化;旅行社业对地区经济带动作用的差异与地区旅游资源和经济发展水平有关,其对景区相对丰富的东部省份的经济增加值带动作用较大,对景区相对丰富的中西部省份的就业带动作用较大。

With the purpose of analyzing the spatial and temporal variation of driving effects of China＇s travel agency sector on the national economy,this paper used the non-competitive inputoutput model to measure the domestic total value added and the total employment rate of travel agency sector and difference types of provinces of China from 2002 to 2012.The results show that：during the investigation,the status of travel agency services in the national economy was stable,but the inducing effect of its final demand on the domestic value added reduced mainly due to the falling productivity and increasing the proportion of international tourism;the inducing effect of the final demand of travel services industry on the basic tourism consumption decreased while the non-basic tourism consumption increased and the structure of tourism consumption has been optimizing;the differences of the driving effects of travel agency sector in different regions related to regional tourism resources and economic development level;the travel agency sector shows great effect on leading the added economic growth of the eastern provinces with rich scenic areas,and on employments of the central and western ones.