卷烟销售结构影响因素研究——基于芜湖市时间序列数据的实证分析

Research on the Influencing Factors of Cigarette Sales Structure—— An Empirical Analysis Based on the Time Series Data of Wuhu City

为了分析影响卷烟销售结构的主要因素,论文以芜湖市为例,采用曲线回归的方法构建模型,对芜湖市2009-2016年的销售数据进行了研究。研究发现:2009-2016年芜湖市卷烟单箱销售收入不断增长,一、二类卷烟销量占比不断提高,卷烟销售结构有所提升;GDP总量、城镇人均消费支出、农村人均消费支出、城镇人均可支配收入、农村人均可支配收入、人口总数是影响芜湖市卷烟销售结构的主要因素。

In order to analyze the main factors affecting the cigarette sales structure, this paper takes Wuhu city as an example, uses the curve regression method to construct the mode, and studies the sales data from 2009 to 2016 of Wuhu city. The study found that the sales income of one box of cigarettes in Wuhu city from 2009 to 2016 was increasing, the proportion of class I and II cigarette sales was increasing, the structure of cigarette sales has been improved. Andthe main factors affectingthe cigarette sales structure in Wuhu axe the total amount of GDP, the urban per capita consumption expenditure, the rural per capita consumption expenditure, per capita disposable income in cities and towns, per capita disposable income in rural areas and the total population.