政治转型与民粹主义的生成——以东南亚国家为例

Political Transition and the Birth of Populism——Taking Southeast Asian Countries as Examples

民粹主义是转型国家政治发展过程中必经的环节,表现为一系列激进的大众政治运动,其背后隐藏着各种权力争夺与精英操作。在东南亚,民粹主义是各国从威权走向民主的转型历程中已经完成或正在面临的严峻考验,这一现象的广泛出现与东南亚特定的政治、经济、社会条件密切相关,首先是宪政民主的制度建设缺乏相应的经济发展水平支持;其次是因分配不公和城乡二元结构,形成了既得利益集团与中下层民众之间紧张的阶级关系;最后是新生政治势力与传统政治势力的较量被具体化为争夺民众支持的斗争。与欧美民粹的左右两极同时发展和拉丁美洲民粹持续影响国家决策不同的是,由于传统文化与传统政治因素的约束,东南亚民粹主义左右政治发展方向的空间较为有限。

Populism is an unavoidable stage in the process of political development for the countries in transition. It is embodied in a series of radical mass movements with all kinds of political contention and elite manipulation behind. In Southeast Asia,populism is a massive challenge that countries have either overcome or are encountering when transitioning from authoritarianism to democracy. This widespread phenomenon has very deep roots in the local political,economic and social conditions of Southeast Asia. Firstly,the institution building of constitutional democracy lacks the support of the corresponding economic development. Secondly,a tense class relationship exists between the interest groups and the lower classes due to unfair distribution and the dualistic structure of urban and rural. Thirdly,contests between the new and the traditional political forces are driven into the struggles of earning public support. Unlike the polarization of western populism and the lasting influence on state policies of Latin American populism,the polarizing effect of Southeastern populism is relatively limited due to constraint of traditional cultural and political factors.