同源前兆波预测地震初探

Preliminary exploration of earthquake prediction by homologous precursor waves

将当前地震预测面临的主要问题归结为:银弹战略乏策、回溯研究存疑、数学处理失实和前兆观测无据。为避开其中的问题,提出依据同源前兆波预测大地震的思路,并对大震同源前兆波的发生进行了定义。所指的同源前兆波主要为声发射波、地震波、电磁波及形变波4类。以芦山地震为例进行了分析。依据同源前兆波预测大地震的关键技术是:观测、分析研究以及预测目标区域积累应力的快速释放进程。

In this paper, the main problems of present earthquake prediction were summarized as follows： the deficiency of silver bullet strategy, the doubt of backtracking research, the false of mathematical manipulation and the unsoundness of precursor observation. In order to avoid these problems, the idea of great earthquakes prediction based on homologous precursor waves was put forward, and the occurrence of great earthquake precursor waves was defined. The referred homologous precursor waves mainly consists of 4 types： acoustic emission wave, seismic wave, electromagnetic wave and deformation wave. Taking the Lushan earthquake for example, the analysis was carried out. Key technologies for predicting strong earthquakes based on homologous precursor waves are observation, analysis, research and prediction of the rapid release process of accumulated stress in target areas.