中国城市可持续发展态势分类评价

Research on the Classified Evaluation of City Sustainable Development Situation in China

当前,中国城镇化正高速推进,城市已成为推动可持续发展的关键领域。以城市三支柱协调发展为理论基础,分别采用城市5年人口年均动态增长率、空气PM2.5浓度年达标水平、5年地区GDP年均动态增长率3项指标,作为城市社会进步、环境保护、经济增长3大维度表征,构建"8类4级"城市分类评价方案,其中4级是指城市发展呈现强、中、弱、欠可持续发展的不同特征。对中国2013年所有数据可得的地级及以上城市开展实证研究,获取基于发展态势的城市分类结果。结果显示,90%以上城市处于弱可持续发展态势,环境污染是中国城市发展面临的关键性难题。我国东北地区城市人口流失和财富增长后劲不足,可持续发展挑战巨大。

Today, China is carrying forward its urbanization at a high speed, where cities have been a key factor for pushing ahead sustainable development. In this paper, based on the theory of ＂the coordinated development of the three pillars＂, Five year annual average dynamic growth of urban population, rate of complying limiting concentration of PM2.5 and five- year annual average dynamic growth of city GDP were adopted to represent urban social progress, environmental protec- tion and economic development respectively. A technical scheme for urban classified evaluation with ＂8 types and 4 levels＂ was established, where the ＂4 levels＂ denoted strong, medium, weak and poor sustainability of urban development. The scheme contained an empirical evaluation research on the sustainable development situation of Chinese cities above prefec- tural level, for which a directory of city development situation for 2013 and 2014 was obtained. According to the result, 90% of cities investigated in these two years were in the situation of weak sustainable development, and severe environ- mental pollution is a critical barrier universally hindering the development of Chinese cities. Cities in Northeast China are confronted with enormous challenges in sustainable development because of the apparent loss of urban population and the less motivated wealth growth.