气候变化对国家脆弱性影响的测度

Measurement of the Impact of climate change on national vulnerability

为了测度各个国家的脆弱状态,衡量气候变化对于国家脆弱性的影响程度,并预测国家采取的减轻气候变化风险的干预措施的总成本。针对传统的国家脆弱性的指标体系存在主观性太强、缺乏探究国家治理各要素之间的逻辑关系等问题,提出引入了模糊层次分析及时间序列模型,选取十大脆弱国家的数据综合运用了MATLAB、EVIEWS等软件进行求解,结果与实际情况接近,验证了模型的有效性和可行性,同时得出气候变化增加了国家脆弱性的程度、干预措施的总成本包括社会成本、经济成本、政治成本等结论。

In order to measure the fragile state of each country, measure the degree of impact of climate change on national vulnerability and predict the total cost of intervention measures taken by the country to mitigate the risks of climate change. The traditional national vulnerability index system is subjective and lacks the ability to explore the logical relationships among various elements of national governance. It proposes the introduction of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and time series models, and selects the data of the ten fragile countries for comprehensive application. Software such as MATLAB and EVIEWS were used to solve the results. The results were close to the actual situation, which verified the validity and feasibility of the model. At the same time, it was concluded that climate change increased the degree of national vulnerability and the total cost of intervention measures included social costs, economic costs, and politics. Cost and other conclusions.