基于云模型的单沟泥石流危险性模糊综合评价

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for hazard of single-gully debris flow based on cloud model

针对泥石流孕育和发生过程中的不确定性,为解决传统单沟泥石流危险性评价过程中指标权重和隶属度确定易受到个人经验和主观偏好的影响,以及定性概念和定量描述之间转换的限制问题,以单沟泥石流沟为研究对象,应用云模型对模糊综合评价进行改进。评价结果表明:(1)通过改进的评价方法得到11条泥石流沟中处于中度危险的有3条,其余8条处于高度危险,与泥石流灾害防治工程勘察规范(DZ/T0220-2006)所计算的结果较为一致;(2)改进方法考虑了传统模糊综合评价结果用单一的数字表示定性概念所带来的局限性,且综合考虑了评价结果的中心值、模糊性和随机性,用云模型表示单沟泥石流评价结果极大地提高了评价结果的可靠性和可视化。

In view of the uncertainty during the gestation and occurrence process of debris flows,and in order to solve the problems in traditional single-gully debris flow risk assessment process that the index weight and membership degree are easily influenced by personal experience and subjective preference,and the conversion limitations between qualitative concept and quantitative description,taking the typical debris flow gullies in southwest China as the research objects,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is improved by using the cloud model,which provides a new idea for the risk assessment of single-gully debris flow. The evaluation results show that through the improved evaluation method,3 of the 11 debris flow gullies are at moderate risk,and the remaining 8 are at high risk,which are in accordance with the results calculated by DZ/T0220-2006. Aiming at the limitations of the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results that use single values to represent some qualitative concepts,the central value,fuzziness and randomness of the evaluation results are considered in the improved method. Using cloud model to represent the evaluation results of single-gully debris flow can greatly improve the reliability and visualization of the evaluation results.