基于模糊集理论的施工多态系统可靠性分析

Reliability analysis on multi-state construction system of water conservancy projects based on fuzzy set theory

为处理水利工程高危作业施工过程中的模糊信息,提出了基于模糊集理论的施工系统可靠性分析法。以水利工程中的物体打击事故为例,运用修订的人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)进行人为因素分析识别,并基于事故树构造相应的事故系统模型。通过引入模糊数表示系统节点的故障状态,模糊子集描述节点的失效概率处理施工过程中的不确定信息,结合贝叶斯理论对该系统进行可靠性分析并计算各根节点的重要性。研究结果表明:人员情况差及无专业组织培训是物体打击作业系统处于危险状态和事故状态的薄弱环节,该模型能很好地描述各节点间的不确定逻辑关系,并对水利施工系统进行有效的可靠性分析。

In order to deal with the fuzzy information in the high risk construction process of water conservancy projects,the reliability analysis method of construction system based on fuzzy set theory is put forward. Taking the object strike accident in water conservancy engineering as an example,the human factor analysis and identification is carried out by using the revised human factor analysis and classification system（ HFACSS）,and the corresponding accident system model is constructed based on the accident tree. The fuzzy number is introduced to represent the fault state of the system node,the fuzzy subset describes the uncertain information of the node of the failure probability,and Bayesian theory is integrated to analyze the reliability of the system and calculate the importance of each root node. The research results show that the poor personnel situation and lacking of professional organization training are the weak links making the object strike operation system in a dangerous or accident state. This model can well describe the uncertain logic relationship among the nodes and effectively analyze the reliability of water conservancy construction system.