汇改、流动性和人民币实际汇率波动的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Exchange Rate Reform,Liquidity and the Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation of RMB

文章在宏微观一致的分析框架下建立了一个实际汇率的决定模型,基于理论模型和国内外的现实进行扩展,实证检验了不同因素对人民币实际汇率的作用。结果表明,人民币汇率形成机制改革因素对人民币实际汇率波动具有最强的解释力,贸易条件和相对流动性次之,相对生产率由于BS效应在中国的传导渠道不畅通,因而对人民币实际汇率波动的解释力有限,净外部资产的解释力最弱,仅能引起人民币实际汇率小幅波动。结论认为,目前人民币不适合过度自由的浮动弹性,应继续渐进放开弹性以保持实际汇率相对稳定,货币政策、产业结构优化政策都可以成为调节人民币实际汇率的手段。

The paper established a model of real exchange rate decision under the macro and micro consistent analytical framework. Based on theoretical model and realities at home and abroad to expand,the paper made an empirical test about the different factors impacting on the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation. The results show that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform had the strongest explanatory power for the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation; trade conditions and relative liquidity are secondary; relative productivity has limited explanatory power on the real exchange rate fluctuations of RMBbecause the channel of B-S effect was not smooth in China;net foreign assets had the weakest explanatory power and it can only cause a slight fluctuation in the real exchange rate of RMB. The conclusion is that,at present,the RMB is not suitable for excessive freefloating elasticity,it should continue to loosen the elasticity to keep the real exchange rate relatively stable; themonetary policy and industrial structure optimization policy can become a means of real exchange rate adjustment.