货币政策对住房价格波动影响实证检验

The Empirical Test of the Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Price Fluctuation

房地产业过热、房价不断攀升的现象已经成为当前经济社会所面临的挑战之一,为了进行有效房地产业的宏观调控,保障市场经济的平稳运行,自2003年起我国将房价纳入货币政策的实施目标。文章从贷款利率、银行信贷和货币供应量角度,以住宅房价为研究对象,通过建立VAR协整方程并进行格兰杰因果检验与脉冲响应分析,探究对于新建住房与二手住房的不同影响,为房价调控政策的制定提供可能的方向。

The phenomenon of overheated real estate and rising house prices has become one of the challenges facing the current economic society. In order to carry out the macro-control of the effective real estate industry and guarantee the smooth operation of the market economy,since 2003,China has put the housing price into the target of monetary policy. From the perspective of loan interest rate,bank credit and money supply; taking housing price as a research object; by establishing the VAR Cointegration Equation; this paper carries on Granger causality test and impulse response analysis,explores the different effects of new housing and second-hand housing,and provides possible direction for the formulation of house-price control policy.