基于暴露度-恢复力-敏感度的城市适应气候变化能力评估与特征分析

“Exposure-resilience-sensitivity”based evaluation and characteristics analysis of the capacity for urban adaptation to climate change in China

城市是人口和社会经济活动最密集的地方,随着城市化进程和气候变化的发展,城市地区面临的气候风险和影响日益凸显。提升城市适应气候变化能力已成为城市应对气候变化挑战最重要的任务和途径。通过梳理和评价我国城市适应气候变化能力及其关键要素,以期为区域适应政策的制定和实施提供科学依据。基于IPCC适应能力评价框架,构建了基于暴露度-敏感度-恢复力的城市适应气候变化能力评估框架,进而筛选了19项指标,将指标划分为适应气候变化能力对应的5个等级,以熵权法赋权重;采用集对分析方法,评估我国286个地级市的适应气候变化能力水平,并分析了主要限制因素。结果显示,我国东部的适应能力整体高于西部地区,适应能力较低的区域主要集中在西北的甘肃陕西部分城市、华中的两湖和江西等城市以及西南的广西云南等城市;城市适应能力的各项限制要素主要表现为,适应能力高主要为暴露度-恢复力-敏感度的(低-高-低)的组合;适应能力低则分别包括暴露度-恢复力-敏感度(高-高-高)、(低-低-低)和(高-低-低)3种组合。提高城市适应气候变化能力,对西部西北的甘肃-陕西等城市,重点在于提升应对气候变化的恢复力,例如建立良好的灾后恢复与应急系统等;对于华中、西南等城市则以提高气候风险的防御能力为主。

The urban areas of China are not only undergoing rapid population growth and economic development,but are also facing the aggravated risk of climate change. Building capacity for urban adaptation has become one of the most criticaltasks for addressing climate change. This study aims to systematize and evaluate the capacity for adaptation to climate change in urban areas of China and determine the critical elements needed to accomplish this. This study provides a scientific basis for the establishment and enforcement of a regional adaptation policy. We have established an estimation framework based on the IPCC vulnerability assessment,and selected 19 indicators related to exposure-sensitivity-resilience. The indicators were divided into five grades using the entropy method for objective weighting. We then evaluated the capacity for adaptation to climate change in 286 urban localities across China using the set pair analysis method and discuss its limiting factors. The results showed that urban adaptation capacity is higher in eastern regions than western regions. Regions with low capacities are mainly distributed into three clusters： cities in northwest China,Gansu-Shaanxi; cities in central China,Hunan-HubeiJiangxi; and cities in southwest China,Guangxi-Yunnan. The limiting elements affecting urban adaptation capacity in relation to ＂exposure-resilience-sensitivity＂are mainly manifested as follows： higher adaptability is mainly the combination of ＂low-high-low; ＂and lower adaptability includes ＂high-high-high,＂＂low-low-low,＂and ＂high-low-low＂combinations.Different countermeasures have to be adopted to improve urban adaptation capacity to climate change in different regions.The current emphasis is on improving resilience for cities in northwest China,Gansu-Shaanxi,by establishing a postdisaster restoration and emergency system. The key to improving adaptation is upgrading the defense capabilities of cities in central and southwest China.