关于人口统计调查方法体系存在的问题和改革设想

The Problem of Population Statistics System and the Perspectives for Reforming

我国现行的人口统计调查方法体系是以经常性的人口抽样调查为主体、以人口普查为基础、重点调查等为补充的多种方法的运用,但随着经济社会的快速发展,以普查为基础、经常性抽样调查为主体的人口统计调查方法体系,与政府、社会对人口信息多层次、精细化、时效性的需求变得不适应,在实践中显露出矛盾和问题。本文将对当前人口普查和人口变动情况抽样调查在人口统计中的作用和存在问题做出分析,在此基础上提出人口统计改革的设想,并提出具体的解决办法,以2020年第七次全国人口普查为契机,建立"人口统计与管理服务数据平台",并结合社区网格化管理进行年度更新,取得年度全国、省级及省级以下的常住人口数据;同时改革人口抽样调查的内容,结合手机信令大数据在人口统计中的应用,完善人口统计调查方法体系。

In China,the population statistical system is mainly based on the population sampling,and the population census with some complementary methods is the basic method of population data collection.However,the requirements of multi-level,fine-grained and time-effective data become significant. Traditional population statistical system can＇t meet these requirements. This paper analyzes the problem of the current sampling survey based on population changes and points out drawbacks of the current population survey system.It also proposes a solution for reforming. Taking the seventh census in 2020 as the opportunity,it establishes＂population statistics and data management services platform＂. This platform can help to obtain the annual population data at the national,provincial and provincial levels by using the community grid management service. It develops the content of population sampling survey and perfects the methodology of demographic investigation,which combines the application of mobile phone signaling and big data techniques.