电力消费与城市经济发展驱动力关系的深层挖掘分析

Deep analysis of the relationship between electricity consumption and driving force of urban economic development

不同城市由于区位及产业结构原因,具有不同的经济发展驱动力,在各自的外部环境下,其电力消费与经济发展的关系往往呈现各自的特点。选取规模以上工业增加值、固定资产投资、进出口总额和一般公共财政预算收入4个经济变量指标,基于协整理论进行电力消费与城市经济发展驱动力关系的深层挖掘。以我国某沿海省份不同城市2016年—2017上半年相关数据为例说明各市电力消费与各经济变量之间的协整关系,并找到影响各市电力消费的Granger因。模型有助于分析得到各地经济发展特点,为当地电网企业把握本地经济发展形势、准确预知该区域电力消费发展趋势提供参考。

Different cities may have different driving force ofeconomic development because of various location and industrialstructure. Each city＇s relationship between power consumption andeconomic development tends to show its own characteristics in separate external environment. This article chooses industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total imports andexports and general public budget revenue to deeply analyze the relationship between electricity consumption and driving force of urban economic development based on the theory of cointegration. Therelationship is analyzed in different cities of a coastal province usingthe sample from 2016 to the the first half year of 2017. And theGranger reason of each city＇s electricity consumption is found. Thismodel is helpful to analyze characteristics of the economic develop-ment of each place, and can provide reference for the local powercompany to grasp the local situation of economic development andpredict the trend of electric power consumption.