人口年龄结构变动对居民消费需求的影响研究

A Study on the Impact of Household's Consumption Demand on Demographic Transition

在研究供给与需求的关系时,很少有学者利用微观数据以人口转型对消费需求的影响为切入点,本文首先分析了现阶段产业结构与消费结构的耦合程度,发现当前消费结构在引导产业升级上存在明显的滞后效应,证实了我国加快推进供给侧结构性改革的必要性。为了分析人口年龄结构变动对居民消费结构的影响,本文利用2014年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的数据,以M&W分解模型为基础,分析不同年龄别代表性消费者的消费特征,发现了中国居民的消费特征与生命周期假设不一致,呈现出阶段性、周期性波动,证实了我国也存在世界各国普遍发生的"退休消费之谜"问题,代表性消费者的消费行为通常是以家庭效用最大化为目的,并提出了产业结构调整需要尊重消费结构变动趋势,发挥良好的引导作用推动供给侧结构性改革。

In the relationship between supply and demand, few scholars explore market demand from the perspective of population transition, this paper study the relationship between supply and demand balance as this perspective, the paper analyzes the concordance degree of industrial structure and consumption structure in China at first. The obvious lag effect confirms the necessity of accelerating the supply-side structural reform in our country. In order to make the supply of industry more cooperate with the market demand, this paper uses the data of China Family Panel Survey in 2014, based on the MW decomposition model, and analyzes the consumption characteristics of different consumers and their consumption characteristics, it is show the Chinese consumption always has a periodical and cyclical fluctuation, they pursue maximization of family＇s utility instead of maximization of personal＇s utility. At last the paper put forward some advises to promote the supply side of the structure reform