江苏电网夏季空调负荷特性挖掘与温度敏感性辨识

The Load Excavation and Temperature Sensitivity Identification of Air Conditioning in Summer of Jiangsu Power Grid

江苏最高调度负荷已超过100 000 MW,夏季空调负荷对于最高负荷具有较高贡献。夏季空调负荷特性对于负荷高峰、电网规划、需求响应等有显著影响。文中首先从江苏实际数据出发,使用基准负荷比较法,选取春秋夏季典型周作为研究对象,对夏季空调负荷进行了深入挖掘,并进一步量化出夏季空调负荷及电量。其次对工作日及休息日的空调负荷分别进行最高温度、最低温度及平均温度的敏感性辨识,得出不同温度类型、不同温度区间内空调负荷与温度之间的关系。最后给出了江苏夏季空调负荷的研究结论,对于后续夏季负荷预测的进一步研究具有重要意义。

Jiangsu′s highest dispatch load is greater than 100 million kilowatts,and summer air conditioning load has a highercontribution to the highest load. Summer airconditioning load characteristics have a great impact for the load peak,power gridplanning,demand response and so on. Firstly,starting from the actual data of Jiangsu,using the benchmark load comparisonmethod,the paper selects the typical spring and summer week as the research object,for the summer air conditioning load indepth mining,and further quantifying the summer air conditioning load and electricity. Secondly,the sensitivity of the airconditioning load to the maximum temperature,the lowest temperature and the average temperature are respectively studied inthe working day and the rest day,and the relationship between the air conditioning load and the temperature in differenttemperature types and different temperature ranges is obtained. Finally,the conclusion of the study on the summer airconditioning load in Jiangsu is given,which is of great significance for the further study of the followup summer load forecast.