基于用电模式数的大用户负荷短期预测技术研究

Study on Short-term Forecasting of Large Users Load based on Power Consumption Model Numbers

针对传统负荷预测方法适用性差问题,文中通过月均负荷率和负荷标准差与月均负荷率的比值对大用户进行划分,明确大用户的负荷特性分类。在此基础上,对分类用户的典型负荷曲线、波动曲线、连续负荷曲线进行分析,得出各类用户的用电模式数,再分别根据模式数制定针对性预测方法,提高可调度容量预测的精确度,为电力营销需求响应业务的快速发展提供技术支撑。

In view of the poor applicability of the traditional load forecasting methods,this paper divides the large users by twoparameters,namely monthly load rate and the ratio of load standard deviation to monthly load rate,in order to clear theclassification of load characteristics of large consumers. On this basis,the typical load curve,fluctuation curve and continuousload curve of the classified users are analyzed to obtain the power mode numbers. Then,the paper formulates the targetedprediction methods according to model numbers to improve the accuracy of the prediction of schedulability capacity and toprovide technical support for the rapid development of power market demand response business.