中国城乡分项消费波动的异质性福利损失研究

The Heterogeneous Welfare Costs of Urban and Rural Itemized Consumption Volatility in China

本文在对消费波动的福利损失基准模型进行扩展的基础上,从理论和经验分析两个维度对中国城乡居民分项消费波动的福利损失差异进行系统性研究,为改善民生提供了来自稳定分项消费视角的决策参考。研究发现:农民分项消费波动的福利损失往往比城镇居民的更大,但医疗保健和居住除外;就城镇居民而言,居住和医疗保健消费波动的福利损失依次为最大和次大,为此稳定房价和医疗体制改革成为提升城镇居民福祉的关键;农民家庭设备消费波动的福利损失在城乡居民所有分项消费中最大,但剔除耐用品后明显降低,表明"家电下乡"之类的政策适合阶段性开展;农民文教娱乐消费波动的福利损失为农民分项消费中次大,凸显了大学生就业问题的严峻性。本文的研究结果为深入理解居民消费波动的福利效应提供了依据,并为如何完善差异化的稳定性政策和提升公众福利提供了政策启示。

The paper extends Lucas basic model about welfare effect of volatility by adding volatility affecting negatively growth,and then analyzes welfare costs difference of urban and rural itemized consumption in China. We find three important results. First,welfare costs of rural residents are usually larger than those of urban residents,except for medical care consumption and residence consumption. Second,welfarecosts of residence consumption and medical care consumption are the largest and the second largest respectively for urban residents,thus stabilizing housing prices and reforming health care system is key to improving the welfare of urban residents. Third,welfare costs of facilities consumption and education and entertainment consumption are the largest and the second largest respectively for rural residents,which shows that policies like "home appliances to the countryside"are suitable for phased development. The findings have important implications to help understanding welfare effect of volatility,improving different stabilization policy and raising general public welfare.