援藏与西藏自治区城镇化的耦合协调分析

The coupling and coordinating analysis between Aiding Tibet and urbanization in Tibet Autonomous Region

援藏与西藏城镇化具有密切关联。以西藏自治区74个县(市、区)为研究对象,建立援藏与西藏城镇化耦合关联指标体系。在分析援藏与西藏城镇化总体发展水平的基础上,通过耦合协调度模型以及趋势分析,探讨援藏与西藏城镇化时空耦合协调特征;运用加权灰色关联模型,分析2000年~2015年援藏与西藏城镇化各要素之间的关联性。结果表明:1)2000年以来,援藏与西藏城镇化综合水平均持续上升,但大部分县区仍处于城镇化初期阶段;2)援藏与西藏城镇化逐步进入高级协调状态。2015年,各县区援藏与城镇化处于高耦合、低协调状态,耦合度与协调度在空间上呈现"东南高、西北低"特征;援藏与城镇化耦合协调分区随海拔呈现明显的空间差异且由较高耦合协调区向地区中心集聚;3)援藏与西藏各县(市、区)城镇化各要素之间均具有较强的正向关联,财政转移支付与建筑工程投资是推动城镇化发展的主要因素,援藏在经济城镇化方面取得了更加突出的成果。基于研究结果,针对不同地区提出未来援藏工作及西藏城镇化发展建议。

Aiding Tibet has a strong relationship with urbanization in Tibet Autonomous Region. This paper takes 74 counties（cities, districts） of Tibet Autonomous Region as investigated subjects. By establishing an index system for aiding Tibet in terms of three aspects and Tibetan urbanization in terms of four aspects during 2000~2015, this paper first analyzed the development trend of Aiding Tibet and urbanization respectively. Then we applied the coupling coordination model to examine the coupling and coordinating level between Aiding Tibet and urbanization as well as their spatial distribution.With the support of gray correlation analysis method, we further analyzed the correlation and interaction factors. The results show that： 1） Since the 21 st century, the comprehensive level of Aiding Tibet and urbanization keep increasing during the study period but most counties are still at a lower urbanization level. 2） The coordinating degree between Aiding Tibet and urbanization has shown a gradually upward trend; in 2015, most counties have high coupling degree but low coordinating degree, showing spatial characteristics of ＂higher degrees in southeast, lower in northwest＂; the four coupling coordination partitions show spatial variation with the altitude and higher degree region mainly distributes in the regional center. 3） Strong positive correlation between each factor of Aiding Tibet and urbanization has been found; financial transfer payment and construction investment are the main factors of urbanization. Meanwhile, Aiding Tibet shows more significant effects on economy urbanization. Finally, some corresponding suggestion has been proposed on Aiding Tibet and Tibetan urbanization.