基于恒定市场份额模型的中国服装产品出口贸易分析

Analysis of Chinese' garment product export trade based on Constant Market Share model

为定量分析影响我国服装产品出口的因素,有效地对我国服装企业的出口提出建议,从贸易规模、产品结构和市场分布3个方面对我国2001—2016年的服装产品出口贸易状况进行分析,运用恒定市场份额(CMS)模型分4个阶段对影响我国服装产品出口变化的因素进行研究。结果表明:竞争力是影响我国服装产品出口变化的主导因素,国际市场需求的变化对服装产品的出口影响较大,我国出口产品结构对服装出口贸易的影响微乎其微。建议我国服装企业提高服装品牌意识,从单纯的服装制造基地向服装设计、品牌经营转变,从而提高我国服装产品出口竞争力。

In order to quantitatively investigate the factors that affect the export of China＇ s garment products and offer a proposal,the export trade of garment products in China from 2001 to 2016 in terms of trade scale,product structure and market distribution were analyzed. Moreover,the factors influencing China＇ s garment export were analyzed using Constant Market Share Model（ CMS） model in four stages.The results show that the competitiveness is the dominant factor and then the changes in international market demand influencing the changes of garment export trade,while the influence of China＇ s product structure is not obvious. Hence,China＇ s garment enterprises were suggested to strength brand awareness,transfer from garment production to design and brand management to enhance competitiveness.