大接替:国际金融危机10周年来的世界经济动能转换

Replacement:on the Power Transformation of World Economy in the 10^(th) Anniversary of the International Financial Crisis

站在国际金融危机10周年之际的历史方位来看,这场危机给世界格局带来的最大变化在于经济动能转换。以现今状况对比国际金融危机发生之前的状况,可以看出世界上发生了很多重要因素的"接替",例如新的就业人口接替已退休的就业人口、新的价值链接替旧有的价值链、新兴市场接替发达国家市场等。这些接替的发生,使世界经济的总供给、总需求结构发生了巨大变化,我们称之为"大接替"。"大接替"使得国际金融危机的演进将不再是"周期性"的。由人口老龄化与经济金融化等要素引发的金融危机宏微观深层化发展趋势,中国经济正在发生的结构性调整,顺应了世界经济"大接替"的大趋势,将对世界经济各领域"接替"效应产生正向影响,为世界经济重塑增长动能提供中国经验,从而推动新市场合作网络的形成,并向构建互利共赢人类命运共同体的方向不断努力。

From the historical perspective of the past ten years since 2008, the most significant change brought by the international financial crisis is the transformation of the world economic power. Many new factors of global economy replaced the old ones including new employed population, new value chain and emerging markets. The occurrence of such changes leads to structural transformation of the total demand and supply of world economy which is referred to the concept ＂replacement＂ used in this paper. The replacement of world economic factors means that the evolution of international fi nancial crisis will be no longer periodic. This paper analyzes the developing trend of the financial crisis triggered by the aging population and economic financialization at both macro and micro levels. Cur rent structural adjustments of China＇s economy that comply with the process of world economic re placement will provide positive impact towards the replacement occurring in all areas and promote the formation of new cooperative networks of global market as well as a community with shared future.