北京市用水结构演变分析及驱动因子研究

Analysis on Evolution of Water Consumption Structure and Driving Forces in Beijing

水资源与社会发展密不可分。近年来,北京市水资源短缺问题逐渐显现出来。在此基础上,规划未来水资源利用,明确目前用水结构和用水量变化驱动力很有必要。将信息熵和灰色关联分析法相结合,运用信息熵法对近些年北京市的用水结构进行分析,认清各用水类型的发展态势;运用灰色关联分析法对引起用水量变化的驱动因子进行分析,识别影响程度最大的驱动因子。结果显示,北京市用水结构在逐年变好,其中对用水量影响较大的驱动因子是工业和人口。结果可为未来水资源管理与规划提供支撑。

It is inseparable between water resources and social development. In recent years, the shortage of water resources in Beijing gradually emerged. It is necessary to plan the utilization of water resources in the future and clarify the water structure and the driving force of water consumption. The author combines information entropy and gray relational analysis. The information entropy method is used to analyze the water utilization structure of Beijing in recent years and recognize the development trend of each type of water use.The gray correlation analysis method is used to identify the most influential driving forces of water consumption. The results show that the water utilization structure in Beijing is getting better year by year, among which the driving forces influencing water consumption are industry and population. The results can provide support for future water resources management and planning.