成都市社会消费品零售总额的预测模型对比分析

Contrastive Analysis of Forecasting Model of Total Retail Sales of Social Consumption Goods in Chengdu

基于2004—2015年成都市社会消费品零售总额季度数据,采用简单季节模型、乘积季节模型和X-12加法模型,对2016年成都市社会消费品零售总额季度数据进行预测分析,得出2016年成都市社会消费品零售总额的季度预测值。通过比较2016年季度平均相对误差和年度相对误差,表明X-12加法模型相比其他两种模型相对误差较小。模型的构建和对比分析将对相关研究提供参考依据。

Based on the quarterly data of the total retail sales of social consumption goods in Chengdu from 2004 to 2015,the simple seasonal model, the multiplicative seasonal model and the X-12 additive model were used to predict the total retail sales of social consumption goods in Chengdu in 2016. By comparing the quarterly average relative error and the an nual relative error of 2016, the result shows that the X-12 additive model has less relative error than the other two models. The construction and comparison of the model will provide references for the related research.