无资料地区水文模型参数估算方法比较研究

The Comparison of Hydrological Model Parameter Estimation Methods in Ungauged Basins

无资料地区的水文预报一直以来都备受水文工作者的关注。通过开展四种区域化方法在湘江流域的适用性研究,为国内无资料地区水文模拟研究提供借鉴和参考。首先通过Sobol'方法对各流域新安江模型参数的敏感性进行了分析。然后将各子流域依次假设为无资料流域,通过多元回归法、空间邻近法、流域物理特性相似法和全局平均法四种区域化方法进行无资料流域敏感参数的估算。结果表明,4种区域化方法在湘江流域都具有可行性,其中多元回归法的移植效果普遍较好,空间邻近法和流域物理特性相似法次之,全局平均法较差。

Hydrological simulation in ungauged basins has always received much attention from hydrologists. This paper studies the applicability of the four regionalization methods in the Xiangjiang Basin and provides references for the hydrological simulation in the ungauged areas in China. First,the sensitivity of Xin＇anjiang Model Parameters in each basin is analyzed by Sobol method. Then,each sub-basin is successively assumed to be ungauged basin,and the sensitive parameters of the ungauged basin are estimated by multiple regression method,spatial proximity method,physical characteristics similarity method and global mean method. The results show that the four regionalization methods are feasible in Xiangjiang Basin. The effect of the multiple regression method is generally better. The spatial proximity method and the physical characteristics similarity method take second place,and the global average method is poorer.