辽宁沿海经济带海洋资源环境经济系统承载力及协调发展研究

Development of Liaoning Coastal Economic Zone Marine Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity and Economic Coordination

利用可变模糊识别模型并结合耦合协调定量评价辽宁沿海6市2005—2015年海洋资源环境经济复合系统和子系统承载力的时序演变规律与区域的内部差异,分析了耦合协调发展趋势。结果表明:辽宁海洋三元系统承载力总体上由较低向中等承载力方向发展,呈持续上升趋势;大连承载力处于较高阶段,营口、盘锦呈中等水平,而丹东、锦州、葫芦岛三元复合系统承载力水平较低;海洋三元系统11年总体协调由较低耦合水平向中高度耦合水平迈进,6市耦合协调度的排序为:大连>盘锦>营口>葫芦岛>锦州>丹东;预测未来4年内,海洋三元系统总体协调度上升空间不大,基本保持在中等协调水平。

This paper used the variable Fuzzy recognition to analyze and evaluate the six cities in Liaoning coastal in 2005 to 2015,combined quantitative coupling coordination-timing of marine resources in 2015 complex economic environment carrying capacity of evolution and internal differences in the region,coupled the coordinated analysis of the trends. The results showed： The carrying capacity of the marine ternary system in Liaoning generally developed from the lower to the middle bearing capacity,showing a continuous upward trend. The bearing capacity of Dalian was at a relatively high stage,with medium level in Yingkou and Panjin. However,the bearing capacity of Dandong,Jinzhou and Huludao ternary system was lower. Overall coordination between the 11-year triple systems of marine forward from a lower level coupled to the coupling height levels,coupling coordination degree of ordering six cities were： Dalian Panjin Yingkou Huludao Jinzhou Dandong,forecasted over the next four years,the overall coordination of triple systems of marine little room for growth,remained at moderate levels of coordination.