人民币汇率变动对“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的影响——基于空间视角的邻国效应与中心效应

Impact of Change of RMB Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trades of Countries along “Belt and Road”——Based on Neighborhood Effect and Central Effect from Spatial Perspective

本文将邻国效应和中心效应纳入传统的贸易需求模型,精细地刻画了"一带一路"倡议下中国对外贸易受到邻国和该地区经济领先国家影响的程度与方向。研究结果表明:实际汇率变动对欧洲区域的贸易具有显著影响;邻国效应在所有区域都十分显著,中国与某个国家的进出口在当期与其邻国构成竞争抑制关系,但是这种状况会在下一期得到调整;中心效应整体上表现出溢出效应,中心国家与中国的贸易往来会带动整个区域的外贸发展,但是这种积极的辐射作用并不适合于同一区域中的所有国家,区域内某些国家的中心效应表现为挤出效应。据此,中国应实施差别化的贸易政策,以保证国别贸易与区域贸易之间的协调发展。

Both neighborhood effect and central effect are incorporated into the traditional trade theoretical framework for the countries along the ＂Belt and Road＂. The influence of real exchange rate changes on the trade in the European area is significant. And neighborhood effect in various regions is quite significant too. The trade between a country and China will be negatively affected by its neighboring countries, but the shock will be adjusted in the next period. The central effect shows a kind of spillover effect, which means the central country＇s trade with China will drive forward the entire region in trade development. But this positive radiation is not suitable for all countries, and some countries＇ result presents crowding out effect. Thus, a differentiated trade policy is necessary for China to balance the bilateral trade and regional trade.