数字油藏类比知识在开发全过程动态预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF THE DIGITAL RESERVOIR ANALOG KNOWLEDGE IN THE DYNAMIC PREDICTION OF THE LIFECYCLE PRODUCTION PROCESS

针对勘探及开发评价阶段开发动态预测的挑战,提出了基于数字油藏类比知识实现油田开发快速动态预测的新思路和方法。动态预测综合了类比油藏样本统计分析、动态属性模拟和递减曲线分析,并开发了互联网条件下的预测分析工具。实现上述过程需建立全球油藏数字化类比知识库,类比样本选取,类比统计分析,动态预测和开发策略类比四个基本步骤。以处于开发准备阶段的裂缝性碳酸盐岩油藏A油田为例,预测结果提供了产量、含水率及不同开发阶段持续时间和最终采收率。并进一步导出水油比、采出程度等开发动态指标。应用与A油田具有相似油藏特征的成熟老油田开发动态与预测结果比较,验证了方法的有效性和可行性。基于数字化的提高采收率类比分析,进一步提出了开发概念策略。

In the light of the challenges predicting the production performances at the exploration and development appraisal stages,the novel idea and methodology were presented to conduct the rapid production performance prediction based on the digital reservoir analog knowledge. The forecast process integrates the statistical analysis,dynamic attribute simulation and decline curve analysis,and moreover the analytical predicting tool was developed under the condition of the website. The process stated above needs the help of the global digitalized reservoir analog knowledge database,analog sample selection,analog statistic analysis,dynamic prediction and development strategy analog. Taking the fractured carbonate reservoir in Oilfield A at its development appraisal stage as example,the predicted results provide the production rate,water cut,duration time and final recovery factor at different developed stages,and furthermore derivable the indexes such as the water-oil ratio,produced degree and so on. Comparing the development performances and predicted results with the similar-reservoir-characteristic matured Oilfield A,the viability and feasibility of the method was further verified. On the basis of the digitalized IOR/EOR analog analysis,the development strategy concept was further put forward.