2011—2016年天津市细菌性痢疾流行病学特征及疫情预测

Epidemiological characteristics and epidemic prediction of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin from 2011-2016

目的了解2011—2016年天津市细菌性痢疾流行特征,建立短期预测模型,为制定相应的防控措施提供依据。方法对2011—2016年天津市细菌性痢疾发病的情况进行流行病学描述,并采用时间序列模型预测2017年细菌性痢疾发病率。结果 2011—2016年天津市细菌性痢疾平均发病率为58.17/10万,整体呈下降趋势;病例主要分布在散居儿童和离退休老人,2岁以下婴幼儿最为高发;每年6—10月为高发期;16个区中红桥区发病率最高;预测2017年细菌性痢疾发病率为47.83/10万。结论天津市细菌性痢疾发病率总体上呈现下降趋势,但仍高于其他法定传染病。今后可以通过加强对重点人群的防护和宣传教育,以及对公共卫生的监管来进行控制。

[Objective]To learn about the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin from 2011 to 2016,establish a short-term prediction model,and provide scientific reference for developing the prevention and control measures.[Methods] The epidemic situation of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin from 2011 to 2016 was described by the epidemiological method,and the time series model was used to predict the incidence of bacillary dysentery in 2017. [Results] The average incidence of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin from 2011 to 2016 was 58.17/lakh,showing a declining trend. Most of cases were scattered children and retired people,and the incidence rate of children under 2 years old was high. The peak season appeared June to October. The incidence rate of Hongqiao District was the highest among the 16 districts. The prediction results showed that the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery was 47.83/lakh in 2017. [Conclusion] The incidence of bacillary dysentery in Tianjin is decreasing,but is still higher than that of other notifiable infectious disease. In the future,it is necessary to strengthen protection,publicity and education of key groups,and improve the supervision of public health to control the diseases.